Where Redistricting Stands in 14 States

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On Politics

We took a look astatine imaginable shifts successful partisan powerfulness arsenic redistricting maps commencement to trickle out.

Redistricting is happening successful  each   state.
Credit...Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Maggie Astor

Sept. 16, 2021, 6:38 p.m. ET

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Republicans are jockeying for a structural vantage successful adjacent year’s elections and beyond, Democrats are trying to compression everything they tin retired of their constricted leverage, marginalized groups are lobbying authorities officials to maximize their voting powerfulness and lawsuits are looming inescapably connected the acold broadside of it all.

Yes, the decennial redistricting process is good underway. And with draught maps starting to trickle retired of legislatures and redistricting commissions, it’s a bully clip to cheque successful connected wherever things stand.

Redistricting is happening successful each state, adjacent those with lone 1 legislature district, due to the fact that authorities legislative maps person to beryllium redrawn, too. But we’ll absorption present connected legislature maps successful immoderate of the states whose choices volition signifier the conflict for power of the House adjacent year. (Some different states — including Texas, which is gaining 2 seats and could beryllium a golden excavation for Republicans — are excessively aboriginal successful the process to study thing meaningful, but ticker this space.)

Under each state, we’ve indicated the possible displacement successful partisan power. But remember, there’s inactive plentifulness of clip for proposals to change.

Democrats whitethorn summation 1 seat

Colorado’s redistricting committee precocious redrew a draught representation that would person combined wide Boulder with blimpish agrarian areas, putting Joe Neguse, a Democrat, and Lauren Boebert, a Republican, successful the aforesaid district. The caller draught would support them separate. It would make 5 Democratic-leaning districts and 3 Republican-leaning districts, an betterment for Democrats implicit the existent 4-3 divided arsenic Colorado gains an eighth legislature seat.

Republicans whitethorn summation 1 seat

Lucy McBath and Carolyn Bourdeaux — Democrats who flipped 2 House seats successful the Atlanta suburbs successful 2018 and 2020 — are the main targets for Georgia Republicans. As those suburbs go bluer, legislators are expected to consolidate much of them wrong 1 territory and adhd blimpish exurban areas to the 2nd district.

Democrats whitethorn summation 1 seat; Republicans whitethorn suffer two

Illinois Democrats haven’t drafted a caller legislature representation yet. But if their assertive redistricting of the authorities legislature is immoderate denotation of their approach, it is imaginable that Illinois, which is losing a House seat, could spell from 13 Democrats and 5 Republicans to 14-3. Democrats could execute this by turning Rodney Davis’s reddish territory bluish and eliminating Adam Kinzinger’s district. They could besides support plaything seats similar the 1 held by Lauren Underwood by adding Democratic areas to them.

Republicans whitethorn support 1 competitory seat

The Republican-controlled Indiana legislature released a draught representation this week that would support the lone spot Republicans were astatine hazard of losing. The projected representation would determination immoderate of the progressively bluish suburbs northbound of Indianapolis into the Seventh District, which is safely Democratic, frankincense securing the competitory Fifth District for its Republican incumbent, Victoria Spartz.

Democrats whitethorn summation 1 seat

Iowa’s nonpartisan redistricting assemblage released a draught representation contiguous that would make 1 harmless Democratic district, 1 competitory territory and 2 harmless Republican districts. But the Republican-led authorities legislature whitethorn cull the representation due to the fact that it would springiness Democrats — who clasp 1 of Iowa’s 4 House seats — a bully accidental of winning 2 seats. (That said, it would besides efficaciously cap Democrats astatine 2 seats, preventing them from holding 3 arsenic they did successful 2019 and 2020.)

Democrats whitethorn summation 1 seat. Or Republicans mightiness (but astir apt not).

Maryland’s redistricting committee precocious released a draught representation that would make a 2nd Republican district, making the state’s delegation 6-2 alternatively than 7-1 successful favour of Democrats. But fixed that the authorities legislature has the last accidental and Democrats clasp majorities there, the chances that specified a representation would really beryllium enacted are minuscule. Democrats would alternatively spell successful the other absorption and destruct the sole Republican seat, held by Andy Harris.

Republicans whitethorn support 1 competitory seat

By packing much Democratic voters into the deep-blue territory that includes St. Louis and is represented by Cori Bush, Republicans could marque an adjacent territory safer for a Republican incumbent, Ann Wagner. On the different broadside of the state, an assertive gerrymander could theoretically let Republicans to flip the territory that includes Kansas City and is represented by Emanuel Cleaver. But it’s not wide that Republicans mean to spell that far.

Republicans whitethorn support 1 competitory seat

Nebraska Republicans could gerrymander the Second District, which includes Omaha, to marque it redder aft Representative Don Bacon faced competitory races successful 2018 and 2020 — and aft President Biden narrowly won the territory past year. (Nebraska is 1 of 2 states, the different being Maine, that awards immoderate of its electoral votes by legislature district.)

Republicans whitethorn summation 1 seat

New Hampshire has been consistently Democratic successful statesmanlike races and is represented wholly by Democrats successful Congress. But the authorities has elected Republicans to authorities offices, and it is those Republicans who volition power the redistricting process. That means the competitory First District, represented by Chris Pappas, whitethorn beryllium redrawn to beryllium safely red.

Democrats whitethorn summation 1 seat

An autarkic redistricting committee is considering realigning the state, dividing it eastbound to westbound alternatively than northbound to south, and creating much competitory districts than presently exist. But Democratic legislators volition person the last say, and they whitethorn effort alternatively to marque each 3 of the state’s House seats safely Democratic aft 1 of them flipped to a Republican, Yvette Herrell, past year.

Democrats whitethorn summation 4 oregon 5 seats

New York, which is losing 1 of its 27 House seats, has a bipartisan redistricting commission, but its recommendations are not binding and its members are struggling to hold anyway. The Democratic politician and Legislature are likely to bypass the committee and gully their ain lines. They could sound astatine slightest 4 Republican incumbents retired of Congress by combining blimpish areas represented by Chris Jacobs, Tom Reed, Elise Stefanik, Claudia Tenney, Andrew Garbarino and Lee Zeldin into 3 districts alternatively of six, and adding wide parts of Brooklyn to Nicole Malliotakis’s plaything district, which includes Staten Island.

It’s wide open

Democrats and Republicans precocious released draught maps that would instrumentality Oregon’s House delegation — which presently consists of 4 Democrats and 1 Republican, and volition summation a sixth subordinate — successful other directions. The Democratic program would marque the caller spot bluish and would astir apt effect successful a 5-1 split. The Republican program would make much competitory seats but could effect successful a 4-2 divided successful favour of Republicans, though Oregon is simply a bluish state.

Republicans whitethorn support 1 competitory seat

South Carolina Republicans are apt to effort to cement their 6-1 vantage successful the House by shifting immoderate left-leaning voters from the competitory First District — represented by a Republican, Nancy Mace — to the overwhelmingly Democratic Sixth District, represented by Jim Clyburn. This strategy would marque the First District harmless for Mace, who narrowly defeated a first-term Democrat, Joe Cunningham, past year.

Republicans whitethorn summation 1 seat

Republicans power redistricting successful Tennessee. They person not yet released draught maps, but Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report reported past week that they were considering dividing Nashville — a uncommon Democratic stronghold — among aggregate House districts. That would let Republicans to unseat Representative Jim Cooper and assertion 8 of Tennessee’s 9 House seats, alternatively of their existent seven.

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